You’re echoing Martin Gurri here. I finished his book and loved it, but I think he’s wrong about networks being unable to create. Bitcoin (pause for the audience to roll its eyes) is a great example of how networks can enable people to say “yes” to a vision of the future. Humans have never collaborated at the scale of bitcoin without som…
You’re echoing Martin Gurri here. I finished his book and loved it, but I think he’s wrong about networks being unable to create. Bitcoin (pause for the audience to roll its eyes) is a great example of how networks can enable people to say “yes” to a vision of the future. Humans have never collaborated at the scale of bitcoin without some hierarchy.
As for what this future enables, I imagine that projects like the EU, US and China likely to fail, but their constituent states are operating at scales that are still workable. Solid money prevents much of bad state behavior and will lead to states competing to be more competent business environments.
Oh, and I expect that cave of illusions will get even more elaborate and insane. The algorithms are all in their infancy in terms of what they can do, and despite this infantile level of technology (as viewed from inside the sausages factory) they are still incredible at holding attention. I expect that to get worse, so the future will be even more prosperous and safe than the present, but it will seem even scarier to people who chose that kind of fantasy.
Networks can certainly create virtual or digital communities. But where they stop short is making things work in the physical world. Bitcoin is great and all, but figuring out how and when to pave the access road to your communal property is a whole different bar (and most real problems we face are those).
It's the 'I'm super popular on FB but nobody shows up to my parties' problem, but at bigger scale.
My guess is people will use it to pay for private security / local police / functional local governments.
The world is full of intelligent people, but you can only have so many high status elites, by defintion. What happens if each state has opportunities with comparable scope / status as working in Washington now? I think this is an entirely feasible future.
if states fail badly enough, bitcoin will blow up in value; in that scenario, i'd expect people to just give away bitcoin to local governments in exchange for political status within them.
it's definitely scary, to be sure - but imagine being in the world in the 1930's and trying to forecast the incredible international order that would follow. All of history has likely seemed terrifying to its inhabitants.
You’re echoing Martin Gurri here. I finished his book and loved it, but I think he’s wrong about networks being unable to create. Bitcoin (pause for the audience to roll its eyes) is a great example of how networks can enable people to say “yes” to a vision of the future. Humans have never collaborated at the scale of bitcoin without some hierarchy.
As for what this future enables, I imagine that projects like the EU, US and China likely to fail, but their constituent states are operating at scales that are still workable. Solid money prevents much of bad state behavior and will lead to states competing to be more competent business environments.
Oh, and I expect that cave of illusions will get even more elaborate and insane. The algorithms are all in their infancy in terms of what they can do, and despite this infantile level of technology (as viewed from inside the sausages factory) they are still incredible at holding attention. I expect that to get worse, so the future will be even more prosperous and safe than the present, but it will seem even scarier to people who chose that kind of fantasy.
Networks can certainly create virtual or digital communities. But where they stop short is making things work in the physical world. Bitcoin is great and all, but figuring out how and when to pave the access road to your communal property is a whole different bar (and most real problems we face are those).
It's the 'I'm super popular on FB but nobody shows up to my parties' problem, but at bigger scale.
My guess is people will use it to pay for private security / local police / functional local governments.
The world is full of intelligent people, but you can only have so many high status elites, by defintion. What happens if each state has opportunities with comparable scope / status as working in Washington now? I think this is an entirely feasible future.
As a hack, yes, I imagine they will.
That also sounds like Somalia.
if states fail badly enough, bitcoin will blow up in value; in that scenario, i'd expect people to just give away bitcoin to local governments in exchange for political status within them.
it's definitely scary, to be sure - but imagine being in the world in the 1930's and trying to forecast the incredible international order that would follow. All of history has likely seemed terrifying to its inhabitants.